How the Dollar Estimate works
Every opportunity in RallyProp can carry an estimated dollar value — a data-grounded projection of what a resulting award is likely to be worth, built from real federal award records.
What the estimate represents
The estimate is the median award value of comparable federal awards we locate for a given opportunity. Alongside the headline number, RallyProp shows a likely range (the middle 50% of comparable awards), a plain-language Basis of Estimate explaining how the figure was derived, and a confidence level. It is a planning aid — not a guarantee of award size.
Where the data comes from
Estimates are grounded in official federal award data from USASpending.gov — the U.S. government's public record of contract and grant spending. RallyProp matches an opportunity to real, completed awards using the sponsoring agency, industry codes (NAICS/PSC), and the technology described in the solicitation.
Every dollar figure traces back to actual award records. You can open the underlying awards directly from the estimate to verify them yourself.
How confidence is determined
Confidence is not guessed by an AI — it is set by the strength of the match. RallyProp searches for comparable awards in order of preference and uses the best tier it can find.
Predecessor award
High confidenceA direct prior award for the same program, solicitation, or contract vehicle was found in the official award database. This is the strongest possible signal for what the opportunity is worth.
Same-agency comparables
Moderate–High confidenceComparable awards from the same agency for similar work (matched on industry codes and keywords). Agencies tend to fund similar efforts at similar levels, so these are strong reference points.
Analogous awards
Moderate confidenceComparable awards for similar work from other agencies. Useful directional signal when the sponsoring agency has no close match of its own.
Scope-based
Low confidenceNo comparable federal awards were located, so the figure is inferred from the opportunity's stated scope and funding ceiling. Treat this as a rough placeholder.
Use estimates as a starting point
Dollar estimates are directional and can be wrong. Award values depend on scope, competition, and negotiation. Always confirm figures against the solicitation and consult an experienced business development professional before making a bid decision.
Have a question about an estimate?
If a figure looks off or you want to understand a specific estimate, our team is happy to help.